Wealth and Investment Management Blog

“Democracy is the worst form of government – apart from all the others” – Churchill Markets remain hostage to the unpredictable outcome of a second Greek general election on 17 June. As we noted last week, our investment bank colleagues estimate that the direct cost to the euro area official sector of likely losses on [...]

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“Meet the new boss… the same as the old boss” – Pete Townshend In one of life’s ironies, the sustainability of the euro is being undermined most effectively by a group of voters who say they actually want it. The ballot box is not a subtle medium. On a single issue vote, such as ‘Do [...]

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“The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men have ever understood it. One is dead. The second became mad. I am the third and have forgotten it.” – Lord Palmerston Today’s Schleswig-Holstein question is what that small state’s election last weekend tells us about the outcome of, firstly, the coming weekend’s vote in North [...]

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“October: this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain Since our last In Focus the month has turned and seasonal effects are unsettling many investors. There are also some objective reasons for nerves: a [...]

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The last week’s economic news suggests again that growth in the global economy continues to exceed its stall speed. That news includes solid survey data from Germany, but most importantly another batch of retail sales data from the US that show ‘global customer number 1’ again defying reports of its demise and spending resiliently through [...]

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“That is not it at all, That is not what I meant, at all” – TS Eliot Since we last published a blog in late March, stock markets have declined and volatility is up a little. Weak economic data and a sharp rise in Spanish bond yields have led pundits to argue that the ECB’s Long Term [...]

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                        “…  the worst  Are full of passionate intensity”   –  Yeats As the S&P 500 hit new post-crisis highs this week, excitable talking heads proclaimed either an imminent reversal or a new bull market. We think the rally in developed stock markets is neither surprising nor unjustified – but equally, we are reluctant to label [...]

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“Our favourite holding period is forever”    –    Warren Buffet Don’t celebrate too soon. The agreed write-down of more than 70% of the net present value of Greek government debt in private hands does not mean that the crisis is over. Greece’s long-term debt burden remains high, at a projected 120% of GDP in 2020 – [...]

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