Kevin Gardiner, Head of Investment Strategy EMEA “Move the mouse… up… up… over… more… Click it… CLICK IT!” Pointy Haired Boss (Dilbert) Another late-night summit, another inconclusive result. We still don’t know exactly which investors will bear the costs of Greece’s debt forgiveness, or exactly how much they will pay. Anyone with corporate experience can’t [...]
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“Snakes! Why does it always have to be snakes?!” Indiana Jones No one would be surprised if the global stock market, having made a strong start to 2012, were to re-encounter its deepest fears at some stage. The three broad danger areas facing investment markets in late 2011 are all still out there. Namely: unresolved [...]
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“In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly; but westward, look, the land is bright!” Arthur Hugh Clough As a torrid 2011 draws to a close, and investors look ahead nervously to 2012 and the next batch of emergency EU Summits, potential risks are much easier to spot than opportunities. To start at the top: [...]
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”It’s not the despair. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand…” Clockwise The latest rally in stocks and peripheral bonds has been based (again) on hope that an EU summit would deliver meaningful progress on both a short-term sticking plaster for the euro area banking system, and the long-term solution [...]
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The October rally in risk assets has been largely reversed, accompanied by a further darkening of the media debate. The risk of a self-fulfilling vicious circle may have risen, and volatility seems unlikely to fall to more normal levels soon. We can imagine any number of catalysts that might stabilise markets – for example, some [...]
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Even seasoned investment professionals are finding it difficult to maintain their composure in these markets. We’re all aware of the potential importance of sentiment itself, and the collective mood at the moment is grim. Fear can be self-fulfilling in markets, as sell-offs can trigger the very events that investors are worried about. For example, if [...]
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The sobering date at the top of the page – the eleventh day of the eleventh month – is a fitting one on which to be discussing the fate of the single currency. It can’t be said too often: the euro is the most visible manifestation of a European integration project that originated not in [...]
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The euro area debt crisis is delivering more surprise results even than the English Premier League of late. Even veteran pundits (this one included) were briefly lost for words when Greece responded this week to its partners’ offer to forgive half its debt burden by saying effectively that it would have to think about it. [...]
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Kevin Gardiner is the Head of Global Investment Strategy
Greg B. Davies
Greg B. Davies, PhD is the Head of Behavioural and Quantitative Investment Philosophy
Henk Potts
Henk Potts is the Barclays Wealth Equity Strategist
