While markets have been volatile, taking the period from August 8th as a whole they have also been largely directionless. It hasn’t always felt so, but after the last 10 days’ breakneck – and unpredicted – rally in risk assets, the TAC’s advice to sit tight, and not to reduce developed equity weightings in particular, looks [...]
Filed under: asset allocation, Economics, Equity market volatility, Equity markets, EU, US | Leave a Comment »
Our usual stoicism has been tested somewhat these last two weeks. We’ve long known that there can’t be a speedy resolution to the euro area’s difficulties, but the usual frustrations have been intensified by the failure of politicians and officials to back up the heavy-handed hints of an imminent new sticking-plaster solution dropped at the [...]
Filed under: ECB, Economics, Equity markets, IMF, monetary policy, UK, US | Leave a Comment »
And so the curtain falls on a torrid quarter for risk assets: stocks, commodities and high yield credit have all fallen sharply since mid-year (by around 15%, 9% and 8% respectively). The big sell-off in stocks was concentrated in early August, and led by the euro-area (and within that, Greece): since then, the big markets [...]
Filed under: Economics, Equity market volatility, Equity markets, EU, UK, US | Leave a Comment »
We haven’t often seen stocks and gold fall sharply at the same time of late, but that’s what happened after the Fed announced a modern day “Operation Twist” to help the US economy. At the risk of over-analysing short-term volatility, we might ask why. The fall in gold prices is larger than can be explained [...]
Filed under: asset allocation, commodities, ECB, Economics, Equity market volatility, Equity markets, monetary policy, US | Leave a Comment »
Speaking with investors in Dublin this week the future of the euro was – unsurprisingly – at the top of the agenda. The most common questions were: “When will all this be resolved and when can we can move on and what is the likely catalyst needed for that to happen?” As we see it, [...]
Filed under: ECB, Economics, Equity markets | Leave a Comment »
Policy, not data, has been the focus this week. There are renewed fears of fiscal backsliding in both Italy and Greece. Reassurance is pending in Italy, but in Greece the “troika” has yet to be satisfied (even if it is, as we write it is still unclear whether the Private Sector Involvement needed will be [...]
Filed under: asset allocation, ECB, Economics, Equity markets, manufacturing ISM, US | Leave a Comment »
Separating the signal from the noise in this week’s market gyrations tested the senses. The US downgrade played out as expected with the attendant stock market volatility. Add in disconcerting data on productivity and employment costs and the rise in credit default swaps forFrance andGermanyand the global sell-off we are in the midst of, makes [...]
Filed under: ECB, Economics, Equity market volatility, Equity markets, monetary policy, Uncategorized, US | Leave a Comment »
Markets can’t catch a break. No sooner did the Eurozone’s leaders agree to new, more comprehensive steps to stabilize the peripheral countries’ sovereign credit situations than the US debt ceiling controversy looked headed for catastrophe. No sooner did Congressional leaders reach an agreement with the White House to avoid default than we started receiving a [...]
Filed under: asset allocation, debt ceiling, ECB, Economics, Equity market volatility, Equity markets, manufacturing ISM, monetary policy, portfolio allocation, Uncategorized, US, US GDP | Leave a Comment »
Kevin Gardiner is Head of Investment Strategy, EMEA
Greg B. Davies
Greg B. Davies, PhD, is Head of Behavioural Finance
Henk Potts
Henk Potts is Market Analyst
