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Inflation Report Reaction

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Wealth and Investment Management

The February Inflation Report contained no big surprises – as the Bank of England revised up its inflation forecast a little and revised down its near-term growth projection slightly. This combination of changes means that the MPC now judges that the growth-inflation trade-off has worsened somewhat. The expected hawkishness of Governor Mervyn King (following yesterday’s [...]

Filed under: Economics, fiscal tightening, monetary policy, UK | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

How long does “temporary” last?

Posted on January 21, 2011 by Wealth and Investment Management

The Bank of England’s explanations for inflation consistently overshooting are becoming repetitive, and perhaps missing the point. Once again UK inflation has surprised on the upside, leaving economists dumbfounded and searching for answers. CPI came in at 3.7% for the month of December, far higher than the 3.3% recorded in November and above the 3.4% [...]

Filed under: Economics | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Bernanke’s “savings glut” theory gets knived

Posted on March 30, 2010 by Wealth and Investment Management

Mr Bernanke’s explanation for the US’s big current account deficit has failed to convince. An alternative argument, that puts the blame on policymakers’ tolerance of housing price bubbles, looks much more plausible.

Filed under: Economics | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Gauging the incentives for the US to let inflation rip

Posted on March 3, 2010 by Wealth and Investment Management

With public debt burdens soaring, and recoveries turning out to be the “deformed V-shape” that we suspected they would – i.e. not as powerful on the way up as they were in the period of “crunch” – it is hardly surprising that markets are wondering if some governments – such as the Greeks – might end up reneging on their debt altogether, while others – such as the US’s – might decide to adopt a slightly less painful policy shift for bond-holders, of using a bout of “high” inflation to reduce the real value of the stream of payments that the authorities make to holders of treasuries: in effect, the government would pay back its obligations in a devalued currency.

Filed under: Economics | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

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