You can’t blame it all on the weather. Snow and sleet don’t fully explain poor recent UK economy performance. The UK economy suffered a shock 0.5% contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 – the biggest drop since the second quarter of 2009. Taken at face value, this was a dreadful figure, and [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: forecasts, GDP, macroeconomics, UK | Leave a Comment »
Don’t get too optimistic about aggregate euro area economic data. One economy is clearly in a class of its own. Recent data for the euro area as a whole have been pretty upbeat of late, even suggesting that growth in the region gained a bit of momentum towards the end of 2010. Performance of the [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: Euro area, forecasts, growth, macroeconomics | Leave a Comment »
Don’t expect any recent euro area pain relief to prove long lasting. Slower economic growth will hurt. Recent events in the euro area have taken some pressure off in the region. Government debt auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy all drew strong demand last week. And maybe more importantly, signs that European officials were considering [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: Euro area, euro area sovereign debt, fiscal policy, macroeconomics | Leave a Comment »
What’s really happening with US employment? Here are two reasons why you shouldn’t be too worried by recent data. Last week’s US payrolls report turned out to be a bit sour – failing, as it did, to provide the “icing on the cake” that many economists had hoped for, in that it failed to replicate [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: forecasts, macroeconomics, US | 1 Comment »
The US fiscal policy deal will be more supportive of households’ incomes than most had been expecting, and is likely to push up growth next year. But don’t assume that such a policy shift comes with no risks attached. This past week or two has been an interesting one from the point of view of US policy [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary policy, US | Leave a Comment »
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has ducked a fight with the Chancellor, making only minimal revisions to its growth forecasts and leaving its end-2009 output gap estimate unchanged. But the OBR may still have to square up to the government’s fiscal stance next spring. Today’s updated projections from the OBR were an opportunity for the new body [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: fiscal policy, macroeconomics, OBR, Office for Budget Responsibility, UK | Leave a Comment »
IMF/EU orbit may not be as straightforward as Ireland – and perhaps Portugal – hopes. Spain and Italy must also battle against economic gravity. For those of you not old enough to remember the Muppets, “Pigs in Space” was a spoof on Star Trek, in which a bunch of hogs boldly went, as it were, to discover [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: Euro area, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, markets | Leave a Comment »
Nearly 100 years ago the Titanic set off on its maiden voyage, bound for New York. Exceedingly high expectations were soon followed by disaster.1 Is the Fed’s new round of quantitative easing (QE2), another big boat launched this week into distinctly chilly seas, likely to founder too? We suspect that it might be. How much [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: global, macroeconomics, markets, US | Leave a Comment »
Kevin Gardiner is Head of Investment Strategy, EMEA
Greg B. Davies
Greg B. Davies, PhD, is Head of Behavioural Finance
Henk Potts
Henk Potts is Market Analyst
