Finally! A breath of fresh air just came in from the US labour market: the nonfarm payrolls report showed strong job creation in the month of February, and the unemployment rate confirmed its downward trend. The data from today’s employment report proves that the US labour market is turning around and that the worst is behind [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: employment, ISM, jobs, nonfarm payrolls, QE2, Quantitative Easing, unemployment rate, US, US labour market | Leave a Comment »
Housing still remains the Achilles’ heel of the US recovery. Over the last few months, economic data have shown a pick-up in economic activity in almost every sector, but the housing market has failed to register a significant improvement. This week we learnt that house prices fell again in December, with the S&P/ Case-Shiller home [...]
Filed under: Economics, real estate | Tagged: foreclosure, real estate, US, US housing | Leave a Comment »
Next year’s US fiscal deficit will be roughly equivalent to the entire GDP of its northern neighbour. Electoral considerations will delay any serious attempt to reduce it – but action here can’t be postponed forever. On Monday, President Obama unveiled the White House’s $3.73 trillion budget for fiscal year (FY) 2012, setting the stage for [...]
Filed under: Economics, fiscal tightening, Uncategorized | Tagged: fiscal policy, forecasts, US | Leave a Comment »
In America, strong consumer spending and net trade led to an acceleration of US GDP growth to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The risks to our first quarter 2011 GDP growth forecast are now “on the upside”. Luckily, this time, we did not have any of the scary surprises from GDP releases that we [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: forecasts, growth, US | Leave a Comment »
Many indicators point to stronger US GDP in the final quarter of last year. And let us hope that US surprises us again in 2011. The US ended 2010 in pretty good shape, reviving long-forgotten optimism about the world’s largest economy. Over the past few weeks, economic news coming from the other side of the [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: forecasts, growth, markets, US | Leave a Comment »
What’s really happening with US employment? Here are two reasons why you shouldn’t be too worried by recent data. Last week’s US payrolls report turned out to be a bit sour – failing, as it did, to provide the “icing on the cake” that many economists had hoped for, in that it failed to replicate [...]
Filed under: Economics | Tagged: forecasts, macroeconomics, US | 1 Comment »
The US fiscal policy deal will be more supportive of households’ incomes than most had been expecting, and is likely to push up growth next year. But don’t assume that such a policy shift comes with no risks attached. This past week or two has been an interesting one from the point of view of US policy [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary policy, US | Leave a Comment »
Nearly 100 years ago the Titanic set off on its maiden voyage, bound for New York. Exceedingly high expectations were soon followed by disaster.1 Is the Fed’s new round of quantitative easing (QE2), another big boat launched this week into distinctly chilly seas, likely to founder too? We suspect that it might be. How much [...]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: global, macroeconomics, markets, US | Leave a Comment »
Kevin Gardiner is Head of Investment Strategy, EMEA
Greg B. Davies
Greg B. Davies, PhD, is Head of Behavioural Finance
Henk Potts
Henk Potts is Market Analyst
